The short answer is that no one really knows except that Assad is gone – apparently having fled to Russia.

The ‘rebels’ are not a monolithic group. Essentially, the group that took Aleppo and Homs and approached Damascus from the north is not the same as the one that entered the southern suburbs of Damascus. These two main rebel groups are themselves not internally cohesive, and probably will soon fragment and start fighting between and among themselves because they no longer have a common enemy.

These two main rebel groups are themselves not internally cohesive, and probably will soon fragment and start fighting between and among themselves because they no longer have a common enemy.

All of this shows that Russia and Iran have lost the ability to control events – Russia because it is stretched in Ukraine, and Iran because it and its clients have taken a beating from Israel.

The scenario that I anticipate for Syria – and it is just a guess – is what happened to Libya: a short period of relative calm (do not call it ‘peace’), soon to be followed by a complex and confused, multidimensional, sectarian struggle eventually resulting in a fragmented state. ‘Syria’ will exist only in name. What you can be sure of is that this is not a triumph of democracy over dictatorship.

‘Syria’ will exist only in name. What you can be sure of is that this is not a triumph of democracy over dictatorship.

Geopolitically, Assad’s fall further weakens Iran’s forward defence, as it cuts Hezbollah’s land supply route. On the other hand, Israel cannot be totally pleased with another chaotic situation on its northern border from which some Hamas-like group may emerge. Furthermore, the loss of its forward defence creates additional incentives for Iran to go nuclear.

The loss of its forward defence creates additional incentives for Iran to go nuclear.

The best immediate outcome would see Turkey asserting some measure of control. However, it is doubtful that Ankara can or even wants to try to control the whole of Syria. It will probably content itself with crushing the Kurds and establishing a buffer zone on its border.

Stay tuned.