On the face of it, Australia has an enviable record in addressing the Covid emergency. There have been nearly 30,000 cases of Covid since the start of the pandemic, and many of these have been for people coming into the country who have been confined to a quarantine hotel. As for Covid-related deaths, there have been slightly over 900 to date.

Australia has worked on the basis that Covid-19 is not indigenous to Australia. To keep it out, therefore, requires keeping visitors out of the country. As a result, tough new rules were introduced from early 2020. Non-Australians were only able to visit Australia in the most exceptional of circumstances. People coming for essential business reasons – and a handful of celebrities – were about all who were been able to come into the country. What is more, all of those visitors were required to spend 14 days in quarantine in a hotel room – not in a hotel, mind you, but in a room in a hotel, unable to leave that room.

Australia has worked on the basis that Covid-19 is not indigenous to Australia. To keep it out, therefore, requires keeping visitors out of the country.

The same rules apply to Australian citizens who wish to return home. The Australian government must allow Australians to come back to their own country, but they are only able to do so if there are enough spare rooms available at the appropriate hotels. Usually, there are not. In addition, Australians have to pay A$3000 for the privilege of spending 14 days in a hotel room.

These policies have proved to be highly popular in Australia. Moreover, when, very occasionally, a case or two of Covid escapes from one of the quarantine hotels – known as ‘Medi-hotels’ – the state government locks down the entire state. In some cases, these lockdowns have lasted for weeks and have been very severe. State governments have also closed their borders to other states whenever there may be a case or two of Covid escaping from a Medi-hotel.

State governments have also closed their borders to other states whenever there may be a case or two of Covid escaping from a Medi-hotel.

Over and above all this, the Commonwealth (federal) government has been rolling out vaccines although very cautiously. After all, there are so few cases of Covid in Australia and almost no instances of broad community transmission, that the urgency of a vaccine rollout is not, on the face of it, very high.

The country is open, sports events are taking place, and the arts are thriving. Indeed, this past Sunday, April 25, Australia set the attendance record for any post-pandemic sporting event, with over 78,000 people attending an Australian Football League match in Melbourne.

This past Sunday, April 25, Australia set the attendance record for any post-pandemic sporting event, with over 78,000 people attending an Australian Football League match in Melbourne.

It is not surprising, all things considered, that these policies remain very popular. Politicians in Australia are falling over themselves to claim credit for keeping Covid-19 out of Australia, and for keeping the country largely open.

Politicians in Australia are falling over themselves to claim credit for keeping Covid-19 out of Australia, and for keeping the country largely open.

However, as with all policies, there are downsides as well as upsides. Foreign students, who have been the nation’s third largest foreign-exchange earner, are unable to attend Australia’s universities in person. Certainly, many of them are able to continue their courses online, but that is clearly not satisfactory for them in the medium term.

Then there is the tourist industry. Domestic tourism has boomed, while foreign tourists have been excluded from the country almost totally. This has, of course, had a dire impact on some sections of the economy. They, like other affected parts of the economy, have been heavily subsidized by the government, with the result being that the level of public debt in Australia has exploded – as it has everywhere else.

Australia, though, has a dilemma. It has pursued a policy of Covid elimination. Originally, the federal and state governments argued that measures should be taken to flatten the curve. But that policy has long since been discarded, as closing the borders has made elimination look more credible. And yet, since Covid-19 is unlikely to be eliminated worldwide in any of our lifetimes, this policy of elimination can only be achieved by continuing indefinitely to maintain quarantine hotels systems, to close borders between states, and to lockdown states whenever there is an incidental outbreak of Covid from the quarantine hotels.

Australia, though, has a dilemma. It has pursued a policy of Covid elimination.

The consequence of this policy logic, if accepted, is that Australia can never again be the open country that it once was to everyone from students to tourists and families. In a country where some 28% of the population was born out of Australia, a very high proportion of Australians have relatives who live abroad, with Australians travelling prolifically for family, touristic, study and business purposes all over the world. When will that ever be possible again?

The consequence of this policy logic, if accepted, is that Australia can never again be the open country that it once was to everyone from students to tourists and families.

It is said that the solution to this dilemma lies in the vaccines. Once the country has been fully vaccinated – which could happen by the end of this year – then it will be possible to open it up again. This logic has been rejected already by the minister of health. So, too, has the suggestion that people who have already been vaccinated should be able to visit Australia without being subjected to the 14-day quarantine regime. 

The reason for which these seemingly perfectly reasonable proposals are being rejected is that they are unpopular. The federal and state governments are locked into a position and policy logic they themselves have created. The public, on average, has no desire to open Australia again, for fear that cases of Covid could come into the country. 

The federal and state governments are locked into a position and policy logic they themselves have created. The public, on average, has no desire to open Australia again, for fear that cases of Covid could come into the country.

There will be a federal election in Australia by the middle of next year. It is hard to imagine that the federal government will start to liberalize Australia’s border policy between now and then. Even if Canberra tries to liberalize, the states will retaliate by closing their own borders. That, in turn, will impose costs on the economy – most of which will be borne by the federal government.

So, yes, Australia has done very well, in comparative terms, among the nations, through the Covid crisis. And yet it has locked itself into a policy that is ultimately unsustainable, even if highly popular for the time being. How the country will break out of this box is anyone’s guess.