Most foreign policy analysts will tell you that the single biggest geopolitical issue in the world today is the rise of China and how that rise will be managed by both China and the status-quo powers. With the recent political turmoil in the US and China’s continued economic growth through 2020 and early 2021, it is common for analysts to conclude that 2020 was a good year for China. I think that the reverse is true. There are many measures of the power of nations, but they can be split into two: soft power and hard power.

On the hard-power spectrum, China did indeed have a good year in 2020. Unlike most of the world, its economy grew and the country was seen to have mastered the spread of Covid-19. Its military power also continued steadily to grow. It has, after all, consolidated its position in the South China Sea, regardless of international law.

However, on the soft power spectrum, 2020 was a disastrous year for China. Its decision to prevaricate over international cooperation on the causes of Covid-19 was reputationally damaging. Worse, the adoption of harsh, wolf-warrior diplomacy led by foreign ministry spokespeople and ambassadors who practiced the art of public denunciation of host governments made the government in Beijing look uncivilized and unattractive.

The imposition of trade sanctions on Australia in response to Canberra’s support for an international investigation into the causes of the Covid-19 outbreak, coupled with the said wolf-warrior diplomacy, has driven democracies around the world closer together in confronting the challenge of a rising China. This is not remotely in China’s interests.

The imposition of trade sanctions on Australia in response to Canberra’s support for an international investigation into the causes of the Covid-19 outbreak, coupled with the said wolf-warrior diplomacy, has driven democracies around the world closer together in confronting the challenge of a rising China. This is not remotely in China’s interests. 

So what China has achieved in the last 12 months, outside of its own relative domestic economic success, is to build mistrust and uncertainty about the motives of the administration in Beijing. A good part of the world, as a consequence, has turned against China. That, by no means, can be considered a successful year.

In the last couple of weeks, a very revealing survey was published. The ASEAN Studies Centre in Singapore’s ISEAS Yusof Ishak Institute surveyed 1,000 community leaders in all 10 Asian countries. This included leaders in academia, the media, politics, the bureaucracy and business.

Of course, governments will always be careful about what they say, so it is hard for analysts to discern their inner thoughts from public statements. This is particularly true in Southeast Asia. Most analysts assume that, because of the proximity and power of China, Southeast Asians are happy to go along as part of China’s sphere of influence.

And yet the Singapore survey indicates that, while ASEAN leaders see China as the most powerful economic force in the region – which it clearly is – an incredible 88.6% of respondents are anxious about China’s economic clout.

Then there is the issue of trust: 63% of ASEAN’S leaders have no confidence in China, while only 16% trust China. This stands in stark contrast to the US. Some 48% of respondents have confidence and trust in the US, and only 33% distrust the US. This is a substantial improvement on the same survey last year – during the Trump administration – when distrust of the US was 18% higher than today.

Not surprisingly, ASEAN leaders wish to avoid being caught up in US-China rivalry. However, in the event that they are, and given a binary choice between the US and China, 61.5% of respondents favour the US; only 38.5% favour China. This is remarkable if we bear in mind the economic dependence of ASEAN economies on China – a dependence far greater than on the US.

Not surprisingly, ASEAN leaders wish to avoid being caught up in US-China rivalry. However, in the event that they are, and given a binary choice between the US and China, 61.5% of respondents favour the US; only 38.5% favour China.

What the Singapore survey does is confirm that China is losing soft power as it becomes increasingly aggressive. While this dynamic is understandable in countries like Australia, Canada and the US, as well as for the UK and the EU, what is surprising is the level of distrust of China in the Indo-Pacific region.

Now, then, is the time for Xi Jinping and his team to recalibrate their foreign policy. They need to understand that they must follow the rules of international law, that their economy should trade freely and fairly with the rest of the world, that cyber-attacks on other countries are going to be met with fierce resistance and that, in diplomacy, words are bullets, and that it pays to be polite rather than aggressive.

All of this should lead us to two conclusions. First, the rise of China can be a major positive for the world. Its huge and growing economy has the potential to increase living standards far beyond the shores of China. China can become a constructive contributor to the evolution of the rules-based system and multilateral institutions. It makes no sense for the US and its allies to pursue a policy of containment of China. That is only going to increase tensions and distrust.

China can be a major positive for the world. It shuge and growing economy has the potential to increase living standards far beyond the shores of China. China can become a constructive contributor to the evolution of the rules-based system and multilateral institutions. It makes no sense for the US and its allies to pursue a policy of containment of China.

On the other hand, China should learn from 2020 and work hard to engage constructively with the rest of the world. Its prosperity will be guaranteed if it works harmoniously within the rules-based international system with partners in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.

This all sounds very nice, but the problem is that this is not happening at the moment. China and the US are becoming increasingly hostile to each other, and China is risking driving even neighbouring countries to America’s side. Let us hope, therefore, that wise counsel in Beijing will use the advent of the new administration in Washington to chart a new diplomatic course.