Yemen is not the New Front on Terrorism
Yemen is currently the focus of attention following the failed Christmas Day attack against a Detroit bound airliner.
Unfortunately, as the profile of Yemen increases, the quality of the reporting and public debate appears to be in decline. For example, a number of voices have called for the bombing of Yemen and a greater military intervention into the region. “Al Qaeda,” it is said, is behind this newly expanding threat and action is required.
Several factors are worth considering, however, before jumping into a major new intervention. The most important question may be whether or not this is really “al Qaeda” that is behind the recent events. The answer is clearly not. The group describes itself as “al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula” or AQAP. This is not “core al Qaeda” nor is there any evidence that Osama bin Laden or Ayman al Zawahiri have any direct operational command or control. The audio tape claim by Osama bin Laden associating himself to the Christmas Day attack has been dismissed by most observers as little more than a desperate attempt by a failing organization to claim credit for an action it did not commit.
Where this group originates is worthy of examination. AQAP was formerly known as “Al Qaeda in the Land of the Two Holy Mosques” which would be described in the West as Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. Again, these were local individuals acting out their beliefs in al Qaeda’s ideology, but not under the command or control of al Qaeda itself. Starting in 2003, the government of Saudi Arabia began an energetic campaign to rid itself of the local terrorists who claimed allegiance to the ideology of al Qaeda. The campaign included hard measures, including gun battles with terrorists and arrests. At the same time, the campaign had a softer edge, which included other measures such as economic planning and rehabilitation measures. The end result was that the situation for the al Qaeda inspired terrorists in Saudi Arabia was so hostile that they chose to leave the country (in defeat) in 2008. They had not carried out a successful attack in Saudi Arabia since 2004 and their last attack attempt in 2006 had failed.
When the leadership quit Saudi Arabia for Yemen, they announced their move with the predictable videotape. Since the new AQAP organization has been set up, the results have been newsworthy, but not effective. AQAP has tried two attacks outside of the borders of Yemen which would be consistent with the “global jihadist” ambitions described by al Qaeda’s ideology. Both attacks ended in failure and resulted in one dead suicide bomber and one wounded would-be suicide bomber. These attacks were the attempted bombing of North West flight 253 on Christmas Day 2009 and the attempted attack against a Saudi prince in August of 2009. Additionally, it appears as though the AQAP has suffered considerable casualties as well. Press reports claim that six AQAP senior leaders were killed on 15 January 2010, including Qasim al-Raymi and Ayed al-Shabwani.
Yemen’s internal problems and ongoing civil strife render parts of the country uncontrollable. This is attractive for terrorists who are looking for such areas to set up training and other facilities. However, it should be noted that the problems in Yemen date back for decades and are related to tribal factionalism, a north/south economic inequality, an ongoing Shia/Sunni divide and the hangovers of previous colonial rule and civil wars.
Yemen’s current situation needs an intelligence-led mission to attack a limited set of specific and individual targets. It does not require a broader intervention. Such activities would lead to further internal conflict and greater sympathies for terrorists.
The opinions expressed in this blog are personal and do not reflect the views of Global Brief or the Glendon School of Public and International Affairs.
